The Florida Gators (3‑6) and Ole Miss Rebels (9‑1) will battle in SEC play on Saturday night in Oxford. Ole Miss comes into this game with just one loss on the season and with their College Football Playoff hopes still alive. Florida is reeling and searching for answers late in the regular season. Here, I break down this contest from SEC country and give you my Florida vs Ole Miss prediction.
Our Florida vs Ole Miss Pick
Pick: Ole Miss -11.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Florida Gators vs Ole Miss Rebels
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Vaught‑Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
Ole Miss enters this game as a true national title contender. They enter this week with a 9‑1 record and ranked seventh in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They beat up on The Citadel of the FCS last week and should be relatively fresh going into this important matchup against a conference opponent.
Florida is trying to salvage what has been a difficult season. They are 3-6 and they need to win out to qualify for bowl season. The Gators’ interim leadership has yet to steady the ship, and their offense has been held to 13.5 points per game over the last two games. Florida has dropped three of its last four games and they need to figure out how to get their offense going to have any chance of upsetting the Rebels here.
Quarterback Play
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has emerged as a dual‑threat weapon in the SEC. Through 10 games, he’s passed for 2,356 yards, 13 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 434 yards and 6 touchdowns. Florida quarterback DJ Lagway has thrown for 1,762 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions so far this season. His QBR is in the 50s and his turnover rate is problematic. Ole Miss has a huge edge in the quarterbacking department and will try to use that to their advantage to get a win in this one.
Betting Trends
- Ole Miss is 6‑4 against the spread this season.
- Florida is 3‑6 against the spread going into this weekend’s game.
- Ole Miss is 5-5 on its over/unders so far this year.
- The Gators have gone under the total in 6 of their first 9 games.
Florida vs Ole Miss Model Projection
Score Projection: Ole Miss 35 – Florida 14
Win Probability: Ole Miss 88%, Florida 12%
Final Thoughts
Ole Miss is clearly the superior team in every major metric going into this game. Florida’s season has been disappointing and they will continue to struggle here as they go on the road against a top-tier opponent. I’m going to lay the points with Ole Miss in this game, as they should be able to generate enough offense to create separation against a dismal Gators squad.
