The Duke Blue Devils and the Virginia Cavaliers cap off the 2025 ACC season in college football with the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night. Duke arrives as a surprise representative in this game after the Blue Devils went 7-5 in the regular season. Virginia finished 10-2 overall and 7-1 in ACC play, coming into this game as the favorite. Before kickoff from Charlotte, you will find my Duke vs Virginia prediction and my analysis for this game right here.
Our Duke vs Virginia Pick
- Pick: Virginia -3.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers
- Date & Time: Saturday, December 6, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
- Broadcast: ABC
Duke vs Virginia Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia –3.5 | Duke +140 | Virginia –166 | 57.5 |
Key Storylines
- ACC title on the line. Virginia locked up the top ACC record in the regular season and enters the title game with a 10-2 overall record. Duke advanced through tiebreakers with a 6-2 record in ACC play despite a 7-5 overall mark. But the point spread for this game is barely over a field goal and a tight game is expected here.
- Underdog energy. Duke arrives as the underdog after winning two straight games to punch its ticket to Charlotte. The Blue Devils are playing in their home state here and they will likely have the crowd on their side in this contest. That and the ability to play without any pressure on them could help them hang around in this matchup.
- ACC Rematch. The Cavaliers crushed Duke in their first meeting this season on November 29. Virginia held the Blue Devils to just 7 points, winning by 20 in Charlottesville. But this game will not be held on Virginia’s home turf and Duke will try to use that to their advantage with the ACC title on the line.
Quarterback Play
Duke’s offense is led by Darian Mensah. He has thrown for 3,450 yards with 28 touchdowns and 4 interceptions for the season. Mensah has gone three straight games without throwing an interception and he will try to make enough big plays to get Duke over the hump. Virginia’s quarterback is Chandler Morris, who provides steady pocket passing and the ability to lead long drives. Morris has thrown for 2,586 yards with 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Virginia has won 9 of the last 10 meetings between these programs.
- Duke is 5-6-1 against the spread so far this season.
- Virginia is 8-4 against the spread going into championship weekend.
- Duke has gone over the total in 9 of their first 12 games.
- The under has cashed 7 times in 12 outings for Virginia.
Duke vs Virginia Model Projection
Score Projection: Duke 24 – Virginia 31
Win Probability: Duke 46%, Virginia 54%
Final Thoughts
Virginia should be able to cover the spread in the ACC title game. The Cavaliers are more consistent on both sides of the ball and they have already proven that they can shut down Mensah and the Blue Devils. UVA will win and cover the spread to grab the ACC championship and move to 2-0 against Duke for the year.
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