The Toledo Rockets (6–4) will host the Ball State Cardinals (4–6) on Saturday in this weekend’s MACtion. Toledo is heavily favored as they look for their third win in a row. Can the Rockets win big, or will Ball State put them on upset alert? Continue reading to get my Ball State vs Toledo prediction for this weekend.
Our Ball State vs Toledo Pick
Pick: Ball State +28.5
Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Ball State Cardinals @ Toledo Rockets
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025, 2:00 PM ET
- Venue: Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
There are several factors shaping this matchup. Toledo’s top-tier defense, Ball State’s inefficient offense, and how each team has fared late in the season could all come into play here. Toledo has won two straight games, holding each of their last two opponents to three points apiece. Another strong defensive showing could move Toledo into a tie for second place in the MAC standings.
Ball State has struggled to put points on the board. They have been held to 17 or fewer points in four of their last five games. The Cardinals need to find a way to get things going on offense if they want any chance to win this game in Toledo.
Quarterback Play
Toledo: Quarterback Tucker Gleason has had a productive season, throwing for 2,199 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions so far. With how the Toledo defense has been playing lately, the big key for Gleason will just be to avoid making mistakes that give Ball State short fields to work with.
Ball State: Kiael Kelly leads the Cardinals’ offense, but his numbers are not all that impressive. He has 1,217 passing yards, 8 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions this season. He’s also been instrumental in the run game, but it’s hard to see him matching Toledo’s passing attack consistently.
Betting Trends
- Ball State is 6-4 against the spread going into this contest.
- Toledo is 7-3 against the spread heading into this matchup.
- Ball State has seen 7 of its 10 games stay under their totals this year.
- Toledo is 5-5 in the over/under market for the season.
Ball State vs Toledo Model Projection
Score Projection: Toledo 38 – Ball State 14
Win Probability: Toledo 95%, Ball State 5%
Final Thoughts
Toledo should win comfortably at home in this game and keep its MAC title hopes alive for another week. But I’m taking the points with Ball State in this contest. The Cardinals have a ton of flaws offensively, but they should only need a couple of touchdowns to cover the number here. It might not be pretty, but the underdog in this game is the way to go.
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