The Troy Trojans and Appalachian State Mountaineers t their Sun Belt Conference campaign on New Year’s Day, facing off against each other at Holmes Convocation Center in Boone, North Carolina.
The Mountaineers have won their last three encounters with the Trojans but have covered just once in the process. They are 7.5-point favorites on Sugarhouse Sportsbook for Friday’s game, so let’s see what’s the betting pick for the Troy vs. Appalachian State showdown.
The Trojans had an easy day in the office last Monday
The Troy Trojans are coming off an 88-35 home win over Carver College this past Monday, completely dominating a much weaker team, as the Trojans were obviously frustrated after a 77-41 defeat at Auburn.
It was their lone loss in the last five outings. The Trojans are 5-4 on the season, but they only rank 296th in the latest KenPom rankings. Troy scores just 92.4 points per 100 possessions (327th in the country) while yielding 103.2 (216th).
Junior forward Zay Williams is the Trojans’ key player this term. He’s averaging 12.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game. Head coach Scott Cross doesn’t hesitate to use nine players in his rotation, but only Williams average points in double figures.
The Mountaineers battled bravely but couldn’t cope with Auburn
The App State Mountaineers are coming off a 67-53 loss at the Auburn Tigers on December 22, earning a push as 14-point road underdogs. They trailed by three points at halftime and tried their best in the second half, but the Tigers were just too good.
The Mountaineers made only 32.6% of their field goals and 26.1% of their triples. They handed out a paltry six assists and committed just seven turnovers in another bad offensive performance. The Mountaineers average 98.3 points per 100 possessions (222nd in the nation) and surrender 101.8 in a return (182nd).
App State is No. 197 in the latest KenPom rankings. Junior guard Adrian Delph tops the Mountaineers’ scoring chart with 12.0 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field, while sophomore guard Donovan Gregory adds 11.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists a night.
Trends:
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/appalachian_state” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Troy:
- 2-4 ATS in the last six games against App State
- 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games overall
Appalachian State:
- 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight games overall
The Winner Prediction
The Mountaineers are 5-0 straight up in their last five home games against Troy, and their previous three home wins over the Trojans came by eight or more points each. The hosts will have one key goal to slow down Zay Williams, and if they succeed, the Trojans will be in big trouble.
However, the Mountaineers are not an elite offensive team and could easily struggle, too. Therefore, I have to buy a few points, as the Trojans could keep it close if they put on a strong defensive performance.
Pick: Take Appalachian State -5.5 at -160
The Total:
The under has hit in four of the last five matchups between these two schools including the previous three. Also, the under is 7-1 in Troy’s last eight games overall and 6-2 in App State’s previous eight outings.
Considering how poorly these two teams execute offensively, I have to follow the betting trends and bet on the under. Furthermore, both Troy and App State play at a slow pace, averaging below 68.5 possessions per 40 minutes each.
Pick: Go under 126.5 points at -110