The college basketball betting action is heating up, and I’m taking a closer look at the marquee non-conference matchup at Desert Financial Arena in Tempe, Arizona, as the No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs visit the No. 23 Arizona State Sun Devils on Thursday, December 10.
These two schools haven’t met each other since November 2017, and the Sun Devils are undefeated in their last four encounters with the Aztecs.
The Aztecs hit the road for the first time this season
The San Diego State Aztecs are coming off a 65-60 home win over the Pepperdine Waves this past Sunday, improving to 4-0 on the season. They failed to cover an 8.5-point spread, but the Aztecs won’t mind, as they successfully wrapped up a four-game homestand.
San Diego State is No. 38 in the latest KenPom rankings. The Aztecs are scoring 106.8 points per 100 possessions (53rd in the country) while conceding 89.2 in a return (26th). They’ve played at a very slow pace, averaging only 68.8 possessions per 40 minutes (330th).
Senior guard Jordan Schakel is a key player in this Aztecs team, tallying 12.8 points and 3.3 rebounds per game, while senior forward Matt Mitchell is posting 12.3 points and 3.8 boards a night. Interestingly, none of the Aztecs’ players has averaged more than 27.3 minutes on the floor per game.
The Sun Devils eye their third consecutive victory
The Arizona State Sun Devils are 3-1 on the season following a 70-62 victory at the California Golden Bears this past Thursday. It was their fourth win in the last five outings, and the Sun Devils covered the spread after six straight ATS losses.
Arizona State sits at the 28th spot of the latest KenPom rankings. The Sun Devils are tallying 111.0 points per 100 possessions, enough for the eighth-most in the country. They are yielding 92.5 points in a return (62nd), and the Sun Devils have recorded 75.8 possessions per 40 minutes (16th).
The Sun Devils will miss freshman forward Marcus Bagley (13.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG) due to a leg injury, so they’ll have to lean more on their backcourt. Freshman guard Josh Christopher is averaging 17.5 points on 56.0% shooting from the field, while senior guard Alonzo Verge Jr. is adding 15.0 points, 5.5 boards, and 3.0 assists per game.
Trends:
San Diego State:
- 1-3 ATS in the last four games against Arizona State
Arizona State:
- N/A
The Winner Prediction
The first road game of the season is often a tricky one, especially when you’re coming off four straight home outings. This should be a very tight contest, but I fancy the Sun Devils over the Aztecs.
Although Arizona State is only 1-5 ATS in its last six games at home, the Sun Devils are 11-2 straight up in their previous 13 outings at Desert Financial Arena. Keep tracking the odds update on DraftKings, but the hosts shouldn’t be listed as favorites of more than a few points.
This will be the clash between the two different teams. The Aztecs will try to slow down the tempo, but I think the Sun Devils have enough offensive firepower to take control and outplay the Aztecs’ stout defense.
Pick: Take Arizona State -4.5
The Total:
The Sun Devils’ last five home games went in the over, as well as nine of their previous 12 contests overall. On the other side, the over is 7-2 in the Aztecs’ last nine games on the road.
I’ve mentioned that both teams will try to establish their style of play. The Sun Devils love to speed up things, and if they find a solid shooting rhythm, this could be a proper high-scoring affair. Therefore, I’m following the betting trends and taking the under on the totals.
Pick: Go over 145