The Penn State Nittany Lions and Illinois Fighting Illini meet each other for the second time this season on Tuesday night, so I’ve prepared the best betting pick and tips for this Big Ten showdown at State Farm Center in Champaign, Illinois.
The hosts opened as firm 8-point favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook. Illinois has dropped six of its last eight games against Penn State including the previous three in Champaign, but the Fighting Illini look like a much better team than the Nittany Lions at the moment. Back in December, Illinois smashed Penn State 98-81 as a 4-point road dog.
The Nittany Lions are struggling mightily in the conference play
The Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5; 0-4 Conf.) are riding a four-game losing streak following an 80-72 loss at the Purdue Boilermakers last Sunday. During their awful run, the Nittany Lions couldn’t cope with their conference rivals, while they have to postpone four tilts due to the COVID-19.
Four Penn State players average points in double digits, and junior guard Izaiah Brockington leads the way with 14.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while shooting 45.6% from the field and 42.9% from beyond the arc.
The Nittany Lions score 112.3 points per 100 possessions (29th in the country), but they allow 96.7 in a return (83rd) on 47.1% shooting from the field (320th). Penn State is No. 44 in the latest NCAA NET Rankings despite their awful record in the Big Ten.
The Fighting Illini fell to No. 22 in this week’s AP Top 25 Poll
The Illinois Fighting Illini (9-5; 5-3 Conf.) have dropped two straight games with both losses coming on the home court. They couldn’t cope with Maryland’s slow pace in a 66-63 defeat as 10.5-point favorites, while Illinois’ defense fell apart in an 87-81 defeat to Ohio State as 7-point favorites.
Junior guard Ayo Dosunmu (22.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.9 APG) and sophomore center Kofi Cockburn (17.1 PPG, 10.1 RPG) lead the way for Illinois this term, and the Fighting Illini have the seventh-best offensive rating in the nation, scoring 116.6 points per 100 possessions. Furthermore, Illinois is 11th in field goal percentage (51.3%) and ninth in 3-point percentage (40.5%).
On the other side of the ball, the Fighting Illini surrender 92.6 points per 100 possessions (31st) on 41.2% shooting from the field (99th). Illinois is No. 9 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 10 in the latest KenPom rankings.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/illinois” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Penn State:
- 4-10 ATS in the last 14 games overall
Illinois:
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games as favorites of eight or fewer points
Illinois dominated Penn State on the glass in their previous duel, posting 14 offensive rebounds, and I’m looking for more of the same in this one. Also, both teams shot above 50.0% from the field, and the Nittany Lions couldn’t cope with the Fighting Illini on the defensive end.
The hosts have one of the best offenses in the country and a couple of dominant players in Dosunmu and Cockburn. On the other side, the Nittany Lions don’t have a big body to put on Cockburn and will struggle defensively once more.
Pick: Take Illinois -8.0 at -110
The Total:
The previous clash between Penn State and Illinois produced 179 points in total. As I’ve mentioned, both teams executed well offensively, and these two foes mostly lean on their prolific offenses this season.
The Lions’ defense is a mess, while the Fighting Illini are a top-10 shooting team that loves to play at a fast pace, averaging 71.0 possessions per 40 minutes (82nd in the nation). Penn State will try to slow down things, but their defense will continue to struggle anyway.
The over is 5-1 in Penn State’s last six encounters with Big Ten, and it is 8-4 in Illinois’ previous 12 games overall.
Pick: Go over 152.0 points at -110