When most of the 47 million people that are going to bet on March Madness lay their money down, it will be on who they think will win it all. With 68 teams involved, the ever-present possibility of an upset, and the unpredictable nature of the tournament, predicting who the last man standing will be is harder than you might think.

However, this year, the discussion has pretty much been focused on Duke. The Blue Devils are expected to win and are the favorite at +225. More often than not, a No. 1 seed wins the tournament which makes it really easy to pick one or more of them to make it to the Final Four.

There is usually at least one and sometimes two. But that also means the other two had to lose at some point. Care to wager on when this year’s No. 1 seeds will lose?

BetOnline.ag has posted odds for when Duke, Gonzaga, North Carolina, and Virginia will lose:

Stage of EliminationDukeGonzagaVirginiaNorth Carolina
First round+2500+2000+2000+2000
Second round+1000+550+600+800
Sweet 16+500+500+450+350
Elite 8+500+450+350+350
Final Four+350+275+400+350
NCAA Final+400+500+350+450
NCAA Champs+250+500+600+800

 

While the payout would be nice, it is probably safe to say that no one is going to lose in the first round. Virginia did it last year, but it is highly unlikely lightning strikes the Cavaliers twice.  The odds are still pretty long for all four in the second round. But when it comes to the Sweet 16, it isn’t so hard to see anymore.

So—when are all the No. 1’s going to lose?

The first time Duke will likely even be remotely threatened will be in the Final Four. But if they don’t make it to the Final, pigs must be flying, and a certain somewhere must be frozen over. Betting on them to lose is foolish; Duke is going to win it all.

Gonzaga is a fun and exciting team to watch, but they really haven’t been battle-tested this season. Yes, they too down Duke early in the regular season, but what other wins can they hang their hat on?   They lost to the only other ranked teams they played (Tennessee and North Carolina).  Look for them to get eliminated when they face either Texas Tech or Michigan in the Elite Eight.

Virginia stands to have a couple of roadblocks in the way to the Finals, Tennessee or Villanova in the Elite Eight and then North Carolina in the Final Four. Since the odds are not drastically different, might as well go with the one that wins you more money (Final Four).

As for North Carolina, it is interesting that oddsmakers have given them the same odds to lose in the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final Four. From the looks of their competition, their first real challenge will come in the Elite 8 in either Houston or Kentucky—both teams they should beat. If they are going to lose, it will likely be to Duke in the Finals.

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