The North Carolina Tar Heels (10-17, 3-13 ACC) will attempt to put an end to their seven-game losing streak when they meet the North Carolina State Wolfpack (17-10, 8-8 ACC) at Dean E. Smith Center. The game can be seen on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 145.5 points with North Carolina set as a 2.5-point favorite at Pointsbet Sportsbook.
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Prediction
In the Wolfpack’s last matchup, they were beaten by the No. 8 Florida State Seminoles, 67-61, and were unable to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (128) finished well under the projected point total of 147. One of Florida State’s biggest strengths was getting to the charity stripe. They had 29 free throw attempts, while North Carolina State had just 13. Devon Daniels was the top scorer from either team with 18 points on 7-for-16 shooting.
The Tar Heels were beaten by the No. 11 Louisville Cardinals in their last contest, 72-55. They failed to cover as 10.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (127) finished well under the O/U total of 146. Louisville out-rebounded North Carolina. The Cardinals had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. nine), defensive rebounds (24 vs. 20) and total rebounds (38 vs. 29). With 18 points on 7-for-16 shooting, Cole Anthony was North Carolina’s leading scorer.
The offensive glass could be a huge edge for North Carolina in this matchup. The Tar Heels currently rank 16th in offensive rebounding percentage (35.1 percent), while North Carolina State ranks 279th in defensive rebounding percentage (69.9 percent). Moreover, the Wolfpack rank 46th in turnover percentage (16.9 percent), while the Tar Heels rank 331st in opponents’ turnover percentage (16.4 percent).
North Carolina State heads into the game with records of 17-10 straight up (SU) and 13-13-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Wolfpack are involved, as 17 of their 27 games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, North Carolina is 10-17 SU and 10-17 ATS. Games involving the Tar Heels also have a tendency to finish under the total (55.6 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Daniels (18 points,6.2 rebounds,1.6 steals) has been fantastic for the Wolfpack while Anthony (19 points,6.2 rebounds,4.4 assists) has made solid contributions to the Tar Heels.
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. D.J. Funderburk recorded 18 points and eight rebounds in the first game, in which the Wolfpack lost 75-65, unable to cover as 7-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 140 points, which was 9 points below the projected point total of 149 points. The Tar Heels had a much better free throw rate (0.298 vs. 0.076) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (41.2 vs. 28.2).
North Carolina State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels Free Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – North Carolina, O/U – Over
On the road, North Carolina State is 6-5 ATS with 6 overs and 5 unders.
North Carolina is 3-10 ATS at home with 7 overs, 5 unders and 1 push.
North Carolina averages 42.6 rebounds per game, which ranks second in the country. North Carolina State ranks 225th in rebounds allowed per game (37.1).
The Wolfpack rank 68th in three pointers allowed per game (19.6) while the Tar Heels rank 268th (25.1).
North Carolina State ranks 42nd in assists allowed per game (10.8) while North Carolina ranks 177th (13.4).
The Wolfpack rank 36th in blocks per game (4.5) while the Tar Heels rank 160th in blocks allowed per game (4.0).
North Carolina State averages 7.4 steals per game, which ranks 67th in the NCAA. North Carolina ranks 173rd in steals allowed per game (7.0).
Over its last five contests, North Carolina State is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
North Carolina is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Wolfpack’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.8, up from 5.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Tar Heels have scored an average of 69.2 points per game (1.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 77.0 points per game (7.9 above their season average).