The No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks take on the No. 2 Baylor Bears on Monday night, so buckle up and get the best betting pick and tips for this marquee showdown at Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, as the Big 12 leaders welcome the third-placed Jayhawks.
Last season Kansas and Baylor split a two-game series, as each team won on the road. The Bears upset Kansas 67-55 as an 8-point out-of-towner, but the Jayhawks responded as 1.5-point dogs, 64-61. Baylor opened as a firm favorite for this one, according to BetAmerica Sportsbook.
The Jayhawks need their best offensive game in Waco
The Kansas Jayhawks (10-3; 4-2 Conf.) played just once last week, postponing Saturdayโs clash against Iowa State. They suffered a surprising 75-70 defeat at Oklahoma State as 3.5-point favorites last Tuesday, so the Jayhawks could drop in the AP Top 25 Poll.
Kansas is No. 21 in the latest NCAA NET Rankings and No. 15 in the KenPom rankings. The Jayhawks have the 10th-best defensive rating in the nation, allowing 90.4 points per 100 possessions. They love to be aggressive but still average only 15.5 personal fouls per game (50th-fewest in the country).
The Jayhawks trailed by as many as 16 points at Oklahoma State. They still had a big chance to escape with a win and blew it, failing to score in the last minute and a half. The Jayhawks can still improve offensively, and they rank 23rd in the country in points scored per 100 possessions (112.8).
The Bears proved their worth against the Red Raiders
The Baylor Bears (12-0; 5-0 Conf.) are coming off a 68-60 victory at the No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders in what was arguably their toughest challenge of the season so far. They covered a 4-point spread on the back of another excellent defensive display, allowing 18 first-half points and limiting the Raiders to just 35.5% shooting from the field.
The Bears entered the last week as No. 2 in the AP Top 25 Poll, but they are topping the NCAA NET Rankings at the moment. Baylor is still No. 2 in the KenPom rankings, having the best defensive rating of 86.5 points and the fourth-best offensive rating of 119.0 points per 100 possessions.
Scott Drewโs boys love to share the ball, handing out 18.6 assists per game (9th in the country) while shooting 50.2% from the field (20th) and 42.3% from beyond the 3-point line (6th).
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/baylor” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Kansas:
- 10-5 ATS in the last 15 games against Big 12 Conference
Baylor:
- 5-10-1 ATS in the last 16 games against Kansas
The Winner Prediction
Iโve mentioned a few times that Baylor is my favorite team in college basketball this season. The Bears have tortured their rivals since the opener and are 10-2 ATS on the season, but this time, I have to bet against them.
The Jayhawks possess enough talent to cope with the Bears and cover a 9-point spread. Theyโve been inconsistent recently, and I remember that ugly 84-59 home loss to Texas, but nine points are a fair offer even against the Bears on the road.
Kansas leans on its defense, and the Jayhawks are a good rebounding team, but they will need some top-notch offensive execution to pull off an upset. If they keep fighting for all 40 minutes, I think the Jayhawks will keep it close.
Basketball Picks: Take Kansas +9.0 at -110
The Total:
The under is 6-3-1 in the Jayhawksโ last ten outings, and it is 6-1 in the Bearsโ previous seven games overall. Also, the under has hit in seven of Baylorโs last eight home games when the Bears were listed as single-digit favorites.
Both these teams rely on tough defense while averaging just below 70 possessions per 40 minutes. The Jayhawks prefer a slightly slower tempo than the Bears, and the visitors cannot rush things against this Baylor team.
Pick: Go under 142.5 points at -110