The 2020-21 college basketball season continues Saturday, December 26, with the marquee matchup at the neutral site in Fort Worth, Texas, where the No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the No. 16 Virginia Cavaliers.
The Zags are 6-0 on the season and will look for another big scalp Saturday afternoon. They’ve won two of their previous three encounters with Virginia. On the other side, the Cavaliers went 4-1 through their first five contests this term and hope for a strong performance against the top-ranked team in the country.
The Bulldogs have already beaten some high seeders
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are perfect on the young season, and they’ve already outlasted the No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks 102-90, the No. 11 West Virginia Mountaineers 87-82, and the No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes 99-88. In their previous two outings, the Zags easily defeated Northwestern State twice, 95-57 and 95-78, giving their bench players a lot of playing time.
Gonzaga is No. 1 in the AP Top 25 Poll, but the Zags sit at the second spot of the latest KenPom rankings. They score 119.0 points per 100 possessions (2nd in the country) on 55.1% shooting from the field (5th) while surrendering 89.6 points in a return (14th) on 43.5% shooting (210th).
Forwards Corey Kispert (20.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Drew Timme (20.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) lead the way for the Bulldogs, but keep your eyes on freshman guard Jalen Suggs, too, as he’s averaging 16.3 points, 5.7 boards, and 5.8 assists per game.
The Cavaliers will face their first serious challenge of the season
The Virginia Cavaliers had serious problems with COVID-19, shutting down their program for ten days, so they’ve played just once in the last three weeks. The Cavaliers are coming off a comfortable 76-40 victory over the William & Marry Tribe, easily covering a 23.5-point spread on the home court.
Before the Cavaliers had to close down their facilities, they barely outlasted the Kent State Golden Flashes in overtime, 71-64, failing to cover as 21-point home favorites. Virginia’s lone loss came against San Francisco 61-60 at the neutral site on November 27.
The Cavaliers are No. 16 in the AP Top 25 Poll and No. 14 in the latest KenPom rankings. Their defensive rating is the third-best in the country, as the Cavaliers allow only 86.8 points per 100 possessions. Still, they score 108.3 points in a return, enough for the 53rd-most in the nation.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/virginia” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Trends:
Gonzaga:
- N/A
Virginia:
- N/A
The Winner Prediction
The Cavaliers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine showings as underdogs. They played as dogs of seven or more points just once in the last seven years. However, I’m backing the Zags to win and cover despite betting trends. Gonzaga is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 showings as a fave of seven or more points.
The Bulldogs opened as 7-point favorites on Sugarhouse, and I would buy a couple of points, expecting to see a tight battle. The Cavaliers are an excellent defensive team, but I think they cannot cope with the Zags’ pace.
Virginia leans a lot on Jay Huff (11.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG), and the 7-foot-1 senior could be useless against the Zags. I like what I saw from the Bulldogs’ defense in those three matchups with seeders, while their dynamic offense should be too much even for the Virginia Cavaliers.
Pick: Take Gonzaga -5.0 at -160
The Total:
The over is 17-3 in Gonzaga’s last 20 games overall. The Bulldogs love to push the ball in transition, averaging a whopping 76.3 possessions per 40 minutes, but this time, they’ll face off against a Virginia team that tallies only 61.0 possessions per 40 minutes (357th).
The under is 7-2 in Virginia’s last nine games. The Cavaliers play at the slowest pace in the country, but I’m not sure they are capable of slowing down the Zags enough to keep this game below 140 points.
Gonzaga dropped 87 points on the Mountaineers who prefer slow pace and tough defense. They scored 102 against the Jayhawks, so I have to bet on the over.
Pick: Go over 139.5 points at -110