The matchup between the Florida Gators and the Duke Blue Devils on Tuesday night is one of the must-see games early in the college basketball season. The defending national champions will head to historic Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on an unbeaten Duke team that has looked dominant on both ends of the floor. Who will win this matchup of national championship contenders? Find out who I like as I make my Florida vs Duke prediction as part of the ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge.
Our Florida vs Duke Pick
- Pick: Duke Blue Devils -7.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Florida Gators @ Duke Blue Devils
- Date & Time: Tuesday, December 2, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, North Carolina
- Broadcast: ESPN
Florida vs Duke Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Duke –7.5 | Duke –340 / Florida +270 | 157.5 points |
Key Storylines
- Duke enters the game 8–0 overall and 4–0 at home. The Blue Devils have averaged 40.3 boards per game and have showcased elite offensive efficiency. Their offense is shooting 52.0% from the field. Florida is 5–2 and is playing its first true road game after mostly neutral-site and home contests early in the season. The Gators lead the SEC in offensive rebounding and are among the nation’s leaders in rebounding margin.
- The spotlight will be on freshman forward Cameron Boozer, who dropped 35 points in Duke’s most recent win over Arkansas. Boozer also leads the Blue Devils with 9.8 rebounds per game. For Florida, forwards Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon are key contributors. Haugh is averaging 17.9 points per game and Condon is 16 points and 8 rebounds per game. Florida’s size and physicality could test Duke’s defense and shot-blocking, but Florida’s lack of experience on the road this season is a concern.
- This game represents an important early test for both programs. Duke is trying to prove it can play at an elite level against the defending champs, while Florida wants to show that it can hang with an elite opponent away from home even after the personnel changes following last season’s title run.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The all-time series between these programs strongly favors Duke, who lead 14–4.
- At Cameron Indoor Stadium, Duke is 4–0 against Florida.
- When both teams are ranked, Duke holds a 4–1 advantage.
- Both programs reached the Final Four last season.
- Duke is 6-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Florida is just 1-6 against the spread going into this contest.
Florida vs Duke Model Projection
Score Projection: Florida 75 – Duke 84
Win Probability: Florida 21%, Duke 79%
Final Thoughts
This is a great early test for both of these teams. I think Duke is in the best position to pass that test, as they have the weaponry to make up for Florida’s size advantage. Florida’s guards have been a bit of a weakness compared to last year’s championship team and that should help Duke come away with the victory at home. I’ll lay the points with the Blue Devils in the game of the night in a loaded Tuesday of college hoops.
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