We’ll wrap up this awkward calendar year with some exciting college basketball betting action, as the Colorado Buffaloes visit the USC Trojans at Galen Center in Los Angeles on New Year’s Eve.
The Trojans have just returned from a long pause caused by the COVID-19, playing their first game in nearly three weeks this past Tuesday. On the other side, the Buffaloes snapped a four-game win streak last Monday and will look to get back on the right track with their fifth consecutive victory over USC.
Colorado’s defense collapsed in Tucson
The Colorado Buffaloes are 6-2 on the season following an 88-74 defeat at the Arizona Wildcats, dropping their first Pac-12 contest of the season. The Buffaloes played lousy defense, allowing the Wildcats to make 52.6% of their field goals including eight triples out of 17 attempts from deep.
On the other side, the Buffaloes went 12-for-26 from beyond the arc (46.2%), but they just couldn’t defend anything, yielding 50 first-half points and trailing by as many as 17 points.
Colorado now has the 42nd-best defensive rating in the country, allowing 93.1 points per 100 possessions. Before they collapsed against Arizona, the Buffaloes have limited their opponents below 70 points in each of their first seven games this term. Back on December 8, Colorado lost at the No. 12 Tennessee 56-47 in its lone clash against the ranked team.
The Buffaloes score 111.1 points per 100 possessions (24th in the country) and sit at the 32nd spot of the latest KenPom rankings. Senior guard McKinley Wright leads the way with 15.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, while senior forward Jeriah Horne adds 10.9 points and 6.3 boards a night.
The Trojans enjoyed their comeback, dismantling Santa Clara at home
After canceling four straight games, the USC Trojans improved to 5-1 on the season with an emphatic 86-63 victory over the Santa Clara Broncos. They easily covered a 10-point spread on the home court, shooting 46.6% from the field and terrific 50.0% from beyond the arc (7-for-14).
The Trojans were ready to rumble, dominating Santa Clara straight from the tip-off. Freshman Evan Mobley led the way with 17 points and seven rebounds, making four of his five 3-point attempts, and the 7-foot forward is now averaging 17.5 points and 8.7 boards per contest. His brother
USC is No. 26 in the KenPom rankings. The Trojans are tallying 110.0 points per 100 possessions (39th) while yielding 91.6 to their opponents (27th).
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/usc” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Trends:
Colorado:
- 7-13 ATS in the last 20 games overall
- 1-5 ATS in the last six road games
USC:
- 12-4 ATS in the last 16 games overall
- 7-2 ATS in the last 12 home tilts
The Winner Prediction
This should be a tight contest, as the Buffaloes have a few big bodies to cope with the Mobley brothers. Both teams execute well offensively, but they also play tough D, so the bookies had a tough time separating them.
The Trojans opened as slight 1.5-point favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook, but you can ignore the spread and take the hosts at -115 moneyline odds or go with the Buffaloes at -105 to win straight up.
I’m backing the Trojans to cover, looking for another strong performance after that impressive win over the Broncos. They showed no signs of rustiness, while the Trojans will be fired up to beat Colorado for the first time since 2018 and four straight losses. USC is 14-1 straight up in its last 15 games on the home court.
Pick: Take USC -1.5 at -110
The Total:
The under has hit in eight straight encounters between Colorado and USC, and I expect this trend to continue Thursday night. Both teams prefer to play at a slightly slower pace, averaging below 70 possessions per 40 minutes.
The Trojans’ previous two games went in the over, but the under is 13-5 in their last 18 outings. Also, the under is 5-2 in the Buffaloes’ last seven games overall.
Pick: Go under 141.5 points at -110