Another exciting college basketball weekend is upon us, so I bring you the best betting pick for the non-conference showdown at University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, California, where the Saint Mary’s Gaels host the Colorado State Rams.
These two schools meet each other for the first time since 1984, and the Rams are 2-1 straight up in their three encounters with the Gaels. This time, Saint Mary’s is a firm fave to grab a win, according to DraftKings.
The Rams prepare for their first proper challenge of the season
The Colorado State Rams are 2-0 on the season following an 89-77 home win to Colorado State-Pueblo this past Monday. They surprisingly struggled for most of the game against a much weaker opponent and even had a two-point deficit at halftime.
The Rams had to postpone a couple of games at San Diego State due to the Covid-19, so Saturday’s clash against the Gaels will be their first road contest of the season. Colorado State is No. 108 in the KenPom rankings at the moment, scoring 106.7 points per 100 possessions (62nd in the country) and allowing 100.7 in a return (186th).
Sophomore guards Isaiah Stevens and David Roddy are leading the way for the Rams this term. Stevens averaged 20.5 points and 7.5 assists per game through the first two outings, while Roddy tallied 19.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per contest.
The Geals search for their eighth straight win
The Saint Mary’s Gaels are riding a seven-game win streak following an 80-75 home victory over the Eastern Washington Eagles this past Tuesday. They barely avoided an upset as 9-point favorites, failing to cover for the third time in the last four showings.
Saturday’s game against the Rams will be the sixth straight outing at home for the Gaels. They are No. 65 in the latest KenPom rankings, as the Gaels score 107.2 points per 100 possessions (53rd in the nation) and surrender 94.8 in a return (79th).
Senior guard Tommy Kuhse leads the way for Saint Mary’s with 15.6 points and 6.4 assists per game. He was the Gaels’ hero last Tuesday, dropping 34 points on Eastern Washington. Sophomore guard Alex Ducas tallies 11.4 points and 5.6 boards per game, while junior forward Matthias Tass adds 11.0 points and 4.4 rebounds a night.
Trends:
Colorado State:
- 3-6 ATS in the last nine games overall
- 4-9 ATS in the last 13 outings in December
Saint Mary’s:
- 3-1 ATS in the last four home games as favorites of seven or fewer points
The Winner Prediction
The Rams are 2-3 straight up and ATS in their last five road games. Their offense works well, but the Rams have some serious defensive issues that will be exploited by the Gaels. I think that will be a key factor, so give me the hosts to cover a 5-point spread at some slightly lower wages.
The visitors could easily keep it close if they enjoy a nice shooting night. However, the Gaels execute well offensively, and I expect the Rams to struggle mightily on the defensive end. Furthermore, the Gaels have already played eight games this term, so they should be in much better form than the Rams.
Saint Mary’s are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS in their last four home games when they opened as favorites of seven or fewer points.
Pick: Take Saint Mary’s -5.0 at -160
The Total:
The over has hit in Saint Mary’s last four outings and 13 of the Gaels’ last 18 showings on the home court. On the other side, the over is 11-6 in Colorado State’s last 17 games overall.
The Rams are posting 71.2 possessions per 40 minutes (149th in the country), while the Gaels are recording only 65.3 possessions per 40 minutes (352nd). The visitors will have to push the ball in transition and try to speed up things, and when I add their poor defense into the equation, betting on the over seems like a reasonable choice.
Pick: Go over 139.5 points at -110